The Future of Canada's Forest in Terms of Carbon Emissions
12/28/99
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RELAYED TEXT STARTS HERE:
Title: Billions of dollars at stake as 'Kyoto forest' is defined
Answer will determine if Canada's trees are part of the
problem or the solution
Source: The Ottawa Citizen
Status: Copyright 1999, contact source for permission to reprint
Date: December 28, 1999
Byline: Andrew Duffy
A federal research paper says Canada's forests could become a
significant source of greenhouse gas emissions in coming years -- or
else the answer to politicians'
prayers.
It all depends on how the "Kyoto forest" is defined in the next round
of international negotiations which are to give shape to the climate
change agreement signed two years ago in Kyoto, Japan.
Although not yet formally ratified, the Kyoto agreement commits the
world's industrialized nations to cutting their output of greenhouse
gases. The gases, produced largely by burning fossil fuels, are
believed to be responsible for a long-term trend toward a warmer
climate.
The research paper, obtained by the Citizen, concludes Canada has a
vital strategic interest in the definition of the Kyoto forest since
it will determine whether the country's existing forest management
practices produce a "substantial source or sink" in the years 2008-
2012.
As it's now defined, the Kyoto forest would include only a fraction of
Canada's forested areas, which cover about 42 per cent of the
country's land mass. Forests are considered sinks because they absorb
huge amounts of carbon dioxide. Billions of dollars in costs to the
Canadian economy will be at stake when international negotiators
define what kind of forest practices will be included and how they'll
be measured.
How "reforestation" is defined, for example, will determine whether
Canadian forests end up producing 21 megatonnes of carbon dioxide, or
swallowing 10 megatonnes in 2010, the report says.
To meet its Kyoto target, Canada must reduce its annual output of
carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases by about 160 megatonnes
between the years 2008 and 2012.
Reaching that target is expected to cost the Canadian economy between
$8.4 billion and $17 billion. But if Canada wins a favourable
definition of reforestation, it could reap huge long-term rewards that
would significantly reduce costs.
According to the research paper, known as the Sinks Table Option
Paper, Canada wants the reforestation definition to recognize the
value of replanting trees after a forest is logged.
The current definition, contained in the original Kyoto protocol,
would recognize only those trees planted on land converted to
agricultural or industrial use.
The definition proposed by federal negotiators would allow Canada to
deduct up to 25 megatonnes from its national target between 2018 and
2022, and up to 42 megatonnes from its target for the next five years.
Such reduction levels would save billions.
The research paper was prepared for the federal government as part of
a two-year consultation process on Canada's Kyoto targets. Cabinet
documents leaked earlier this month suggest the federal government
will spend $1.63 billion over the next five years toward the Kyoto
goal.
The plan will include up to $6 million for planting trees on marginal
farmlands and other private lands.
The tree planting will be conducted under terms of the existing
definition of the Kyoto forest, which recognizes a limited number of
forestry practices as beneficial to the atmosphere.
The Kyoto forest acknowledges the benefit of new trees planted on land
that never before was home to a forest, or on former forest land that
is now used for some other purpose.
The Kyoto forest also measures deforestation. It will assess the
amount of forest lost to logging, urban sprawl and farming, and count
that as a source of emissions. The research study suggests
deforestation will act as a source of from three to 19 megatonnes of
emissions by 2010.
The carbon dioxide stored in trees is released when they decompose or
burn, but forest fires are not expected to be counted against a
country's greenhouse gas inventory.
Scientists believe the earth's natural sinks -- forests, oceans and
soil -- now absorb about half of the seven billion tonnes of carbon
dioxide pumped every year into the air.
Environmentalists, however, are widely opposed to the inclusion of
forest sinks in the Kyoto agreement. They contend the sinks will allow
industrialized countries to increase emissions by giving themselves
credit for something that's part of the earth's natural carbon cycle.
At the Kyoto negotiations in December 1997, Canada argued that the
benefit of properly managed forests had to be included for the country
to accept an emissions control treaty.
The U.S., Australia, New Zealand and Norway supported the proposal,
while Japan, other European countries and most developing nations
opposed it.
A special scientific panel was set up by the United Nations to study
whether it's possible to measure the contribution of the world's
forests to greenhouse gas reduction. That panel is to report in April.
If that panel finds the benefit can be measured, Canada is expected to
push hard for a broader definition of forest and agricultural sinks at
next year's negotiations in The Hague. Japan, Europe and developing
counties are expected to again oppose the Canadian position.