Global Warming Means Food, Water Scarcity
11/6/98
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Title: Global Warming Means Food, Water Scarcity
Source: Environment News Network
Status: Copyrighted, contact source to reprint
Date: 11/6/98
BUENOS AIRES, Argentina, November 6, 1998 (ENS) - In Based on a new
climate scenario for the mid-2000s, tropical forests will die back in many
areas of northern Brazil. In other parts of the world, tropical grasslands
will be transformed to desert or temperate grassland, leading to
widespread extinction of wildlife. Food and water will become increasingly
scarce, millions of people living in coastal areas will experience rising
sea levels.
These alarming predictions were released to climate negotiators from 157
countries here at the Fourth conference of the Parties (COP-4) to the
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change ongoing to November
13.
The predictions are based on computer modelling conducted by the Hadley
Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, of the UK Meteorological
Office by Dr. Andrew Friend and a team of researchers. They made their
forecasts after billions of calculations made by the world's biggest
super-computer, installed at the Hadley Centre in Berkshire.
These predictions of climate change from 2041 to 2070, described for
convenience as the 2050s, were made using an improved climate model
without corrections, Dr. Friend explains. Business-as-usual increases in
greenhouse gas emissions result in a further warming of about three
degrees Centigrade over the next 100 years.
The 1997/98 El Nino was the most extreme on record. The global mean
surface temperature in 1998 is likely to exceed that in 1997 and be the
highest since global instrumental records began, the report shows.
The new climate model has a better representation of ocean currents.
Increases in greenhouse gases result in a slowing down of the North
Atlantic ocean circulation, but even with this, Europe still warms.
Vegetation will absorb carbon dioxide (CO2) at the rate of 3 billion
tonnes of carbon per year in the first half of the next century, the
Hadley Centre predicts. This compares to current human-made emissions of
about 7 billion tonnes of carbon per year. After 2050, and as a result of
vegetation dieback, the Earth's vegetation will become a source of about 2
billion tonnes of carbon per year, increasing CO2 build up in the
atmosphere. This increase is not yet included in climate predictions, the
Hadley Centre says.
Water resource stresses in many of the poorest countries, already
expected to increase, will be exacerbated by climate change. Due to
climate change alone, some 66 million extra people will live in countries
with water stress, and some 170 million people will live in countries
which are extremely stressed.
Under this climate change scenario, crop yields will increase in high and
mid-latitude countries such as Canada and Europe, but decrease in lower
latitudes, such as the United States.
Although globally the food system will accommodate regional variations in
yields, some regions, particularly the Tropics, will experience marked
reductions in yield, lower production and higher risk of hunger.
Africa will be worst affected, with 18 percent more people at risk of
hunger due to climate change alone by the 2050s.
Global mean sea-level rise by the 2050s is predicted to be 21 centimeters
(8.26 inches) If coastal protection evolves as in the past, then over 20
million extra people each year will be at risk of flooding due to sea-
level rise. South and South East Asia are most vulnerable in absolute
terms.
To manage these flood risks, proactive adaptation for sea-level rise is
required around much of the world's coastal regions, the Hadley report
recommends.
Some diseases, particularly malaria, are predicted to become more
widespread as the global temperature rises. While growth in population
will itself increase the number of people at risk of malaria, climate
change will increase the proportion of the world population at risk. The
Hadley report predicts malaria will spread into areas were it is not now
found.
Comparisons of model simulations and observations, based on new
statistical techniques conducted by a Cray C90 computer, indicate that
human-made greenhouse gases have contributed substantially to global
warming over the past 50 years.
"Initial results also indicate that climate models can simulate reasonably
well the climate change of the past 150 years, and this gives us
confidence in predictions of the future," Dr. Friend wrote.