Copyright 2001 Reuters
December 1, 2001
By Susan Schneider

SIERRA CHINCUA SANCTUARY, Mexico (Reuters) - Mexico could see a banner year for its embattled butterflies as millions of migrating monarchs begin settling into the south-central mountains to spend the winter, experts said this week.

Between 25 million and 170 million of the orange- and black-winged creatures travel as far as 3,000 miles each autumn to a monarch nature reserve in the states of Mexico and Michoacan, where they remain until March.

The monarch migration has been a topic of increasing international alarm in recent years as illegal logging of the oyamel, pine and other trees in the Sierra Chincua reserve threatens the butterflies' winter home.

This year, reserve biologist Eligio Garcia said there are reports that a large number of butterflies -- possibly around the peak 170 million that arrived in 1995-96 -- would flock to the protected reserve.

``In the next month, when the colonies are stable, we can begin taking data to know the population's size,'' Garcia told Reuters this week.

``But in the Sierra Chincua sanctuary, for example, last year there was one colony and this year the reports we have show three colonies, which means at least twice as many butterflies, at least in this area,'' said Garcia.

The spectacular migration is still little understood by scientists and the size of the butterfly population, like that of any type of animal, varies widely from year to year.

The population can rise with good weather and healthy milkweed plants in the southern United States, where monarchs lay their eggs during the spring on their return from Mexico, while it can diminish from cold snaps.

But butterfly biologist Lincoln Brower said it is likely too early to forecast butterfly numbers, since the increases at Sierra Chincua could mean the monarchs are concentrating there to escape illegal logging at nearby settlements.

``The early reports on butterflies are probably premature, but I hope he (Garcia) is right,'' said Brower, a professor at Sweet Briar College in Virginia.

LOGGING THREATENS RESERVE

A study from Mexico's environmental protection agency Profepa estimates that in past decades 60 percent of the forest in the reserve has been degraded, reducing the thick blanket of trees that lures the monarchs.

Yet the government of President Vicente Fox (news - web sites) is this year providing the butterflies with much better protection.

Some 150 Mexican federal police and Profepa inspectors now patrol the area's forests and roads for illegal tree-chopping and other abuses of the reserve's terrain -- a sharp jump in patrols from last year, said Garcia.

Fox, in a visit to the area this week, also earmarked some $12.4 million in new investment to help reforest and develop the infrastructure of the reserve, and he increased cash given to area landowners to discourage them from felling trees.

Some local residents said the crackdown has reduced logging and even forced some of the surrounding area's half million inhabitants to undertake a migration of their own.

``We leave and work in other places, like Mexico City,'' said Juan Manuel Martinez, who works as a guide in the reserve.

Within the reserve's various sanctuaries, thousands of monarchs flutter around their colonies formed in the trees, or delicately perched on plants and dirt trails.

``It's magic,'' said Christina Brandt, a native of Germany who was traveling from California to Belize. ``It's a real treasure, it needs to be protected by everyone.''

While fears linger that the Monarchs are locked in a losing battle with the loggers, Brower said there are promising signs.

``The government is apparently getting its act together. But it's got to be more than show. There's got to be strong and persistent monitoring.''

Garcia, meanwhile, disparaged talk that the butterfly migrations' days are numbered, saying the same message has been around during his nine years at the reserve -- and the butterflies are still coming.

And, Garcia added, there has been a local awakening to the need for butterflies' protection. ``As one farmer recently told me, in Mexico conservation has only just begun.'' Error: Unable to read footer file.