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WORLDWIDE
FOREST/BIODIVERSITY CAMPAIGN NEWS
1995
ITTO Report on the Tropical Log Trade
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Forest
Networking a Project of Ecological Enterprises
10/13/96
OVERVIEW
& SOURCE by EE
Following
is a report by the International Tropical Timber Organisation
concerning
the state of the tropical log trade in 1995.
It is chalk full of
interesting
information documenting emergent trends in industrial rainforest
conversion. Interesting findings include continued
decline in Malaysian
production
(a failed forest management effort), increased logging in Africa and
South
America (the Amazon is particularly inviting for the ravenous tropical
timber
industry), a diversification of log sources for Japan and other Asian
processors
as traditional sources have been overharvested, and some former
tropical
log exporters have become importers of tropical logs as their tropical
forests
plunder is complete. Surprisingly, the
source of this article is a paid
supplement
by the Papua New Guinea Forest Industries Association in the PNG
weekly
paper, _The Independent_. It is ironic
that so many of the main points
in the
article clearly illustrate the short term nature of industrial forestry
development;
just as the failed model of Malaysian forestry practices is being
replicated
in Papua New Guinea, Africa and increasingly in the Amazon.
g.b.
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RELAYED
TEXT STARTS HERE:
Headline: PNG and the world trade in tropical logs
Source: Paid supplement in _The Independent_
Date: 9/27/96
Page 9
THE
World trade in tropical logs is centred around three major producing areas -
Central
Africa, Latin America and Asia/Pacific.
The International Tropical
Timber
Organisation (I.T.T.O) has prepared its initial review of the tropical
log
trade for 1995.
_Log
production_
The
production of tropical logs in ITTO producer member countries totalled 132.8
million
m3 in 1995, down two per cent from 135.6 million m3 in 1993. Decreases
in
Malaysian production were responsible for most of this decline, with most
major
African and Latin American producing countries increasing production in
1993-1994
before stabilising in 1995. Figure 1
shows ITTO's five major tropical
log
producers through 1995. Malaysian
production, which peaked at 43.5 million
m3 in
1992, dropped to 35 million m3 in 1995, a 20 per cent reduction in just
three
years.
__________
Figure
1 (table constructed from interpretation of original bar graph, to
nearest
500,000 m3):
Major
Tropical Log Producers
Volume
(1000 m3)
1993 1994 1995
Malaysia 37,000 35,500 35,000
Indonesia 37,000 35,000 34,000
Brazil 23,000 25,000 26,000
India 16,000 15,000 15,000
PNG 3,000 3,500 3,000
Others 20,500 22,000 20,500
_________
Together,
the top four tropical log producing countries (Malaysia, Indonesia,
Brazil
and India) comprise over 83 per cent of ITTO production. Papua New
Guinea
was the fifth largest ITTO log producer in 1993, but in 1994 Cameroon
reported
an increase in production of more than one million m3 (to 3.9 million
m3)
driven by a jump in exports to Asia, moving it ahead of PNG in that year.
Cameroon's
1995 production dropped back to three million m3, so that PNG at 3.3
million
m3 regained its number five ranking.
_Production
increasing in some countries_
Ten
other ITTO producer members had log production exceeding one million m3 in
1993. Half of these (Cameroon, Ecuador,
Coted'Ivoire, Gabon and Peru) had
increased
log production over 1993 levels in 1995, while production fell in the
other
five (Myanmar, Ghana, Venezuela, Philippines and Colombia) through 1995.
Of the
main producers, log production is increasing in PNG, Cameroon, Gabon and
Peru.
The
regional breakdown of tropical log production and exports is given in Table
1. The Asia-pacific region's share of ITTO
members' tropical hardwood log
production
fell to 67 per cent in 1995 from 71 per cent in 1993, due to
Malaysian
production increases. Africa's share of
production remained at 7 per
cent
over the period, wth Latin American production growing from 22 to 25 per
cent.
__________
Table 1
Composition
of Exports by Region, 1993-95 (100 m3 rwe)
Log Production
Log Exports
1993 1994
1995 1993 1994
1995
Region
Africa 9097 10836 9660 3250 4003 3476
Asia-Pacific 96259
91674 89640 13281
12266 11608
Latin
America 30204 32567
33509 251 1052
1050
Total 135560 135077 132809 16782 17321 16134
Processed Exports Total Exports
1993 1994
1995 1993 1994
1995
Region
Africa 2418 2849 2742 5668 6852 6218
Asia-Pacific 40771
37718 37794 54052 49984 49402
Latin
America 3828 4526
5068 4079
5578 6118
Total 47016 45092 45603 63798 62413 61737
__________
_Log
consumption_
Figure
2 shows that tropical log consumption for 1993-95 was stable or
decreasing
in the main Asian markets of Indonesia, Malaysia, India and Japan,
with
only Brazil showing a steady increase over the period (note that Japan
maintains
and consumes significant stockpiles of tropical logs, accounting for
differences
between consumption and import figures).
These five countries
accounted
for an average of 81 per cent of total ITTO consumption of tropical
logs in
1993-95. The general trend towards
increasing domestic log consumption
which
has been apparent in recent years will accelerate and affect all regions
in the
next few years as tropical log supplies tighten and as increased
processing
capacity comes on line in producing countries.
_Exports_
The
composition of exports for 1993-95 from ITTO producing regions is shown in
Table
1. The contribution of logs of total
tropical timber exports, including
manufactured
products of ITTO producers, dropped from over 60 per cent in 1980
to an
average of 26 per cent in 1993-95. A
similar drop in log export revenues
was
observed. Only Africa continues to
export a higher volume equivalent of
logs
than processed products. The
Asia-Pacific region is rapidly replacing log
export
with the export of processed products, spurred by Indonesian plywood
exports
and Malaysian exports of sawnwood, veneer and plywood. Asian tropical
log
exports made up 25 per cent of total export volume in 1993-94 dropping to 23
per
cent of total exports in 1995.
Papua
New Guinea is the second largest tropical log exporter, with 1995 exports
of 2.9
million m3 worth nearly US$400 million.
The bulk of PNG's log exports go
to
Japan and Republic of Korea. PNG's log
export controls appear to be working,
as the
discrepancies between export/import reports are becoming less
significant.
Africa
supplies the majority of the remainder of global tropical hardwood log
exports. Gabon and Cameroon are the largest
exporters, but Ghana, Coted'Ivoire
and
Congo all exported substantial quantities of logs in 1993-95. All of these
countries
experienced large increases in exports in 1993-94, primarily to China,
Korea
and Japan, which sought new log supplies to offset decreases from
Malaysia.
_________
Figure
2 (table constructed from interpretation of original bar graph, to
nearest
100,000 m3):
Major
Tropical Log Exporters
Volume
(1000 m3)
1993 1994 1995
Malaysia 9400 8500 8000
PNG 2700 3100 2800
Gabon 1500 1500 1700
Myanmar 1000 600 700
Cameroon 700 1100 1000
Others 1400 2500
2000
__________
_Imports_
Figure
4 shows the top ITTO log importers in 1993-95.
Japan still dominates the
global
tropical log market, with its demand continuing to be met primarily by
output
from Malaysia, which supplied 60 per cent of Japan's total tropical log
imports
of 7.6 million m3 in 1994. Decreasing
log exports from Sarawak and the
export
ban in Sabah have resulted in greater diversity of suppliers to the
Japanese
market in recent years, including softwood and temperate hardwood log
exporters. Japan has increased tropical log imports from
Africa, with 1993-94
imports
over five times the 100,000m3 imported in 1992, mostly from Gabon and
Cameroon. Imports from PNG have also increased to 1.9
million m3 in 1994 from
1.1
million m3 in 1992. Increased imports
from all of these sources as well as
from
other non-ITTO sources such as the Solomon Islands (which supplied Japan
with
almost 350,000 m3 in 1995) have not been able to offset decreases from
traditional
sources, resulting in total Japanese imports of less than 6.6
million
m3 in 1995.
China
is the second largest ITTO tropical log importer at 3.8 million m3 in
1993,
led by Taiwan Province of China's imports of almost 2.2 million m3 (down
45 per
cent from 1992 levels). Aggregate
imports by China and Taiwan province
of China
rose to 4 million m3 in 1995, due to increases in imports by the
mainland,
mainly from Africa (Gabon and Cameroon) and PNG.
The
Republic of Korea is also a major ITTO tropical log consumer, absorbing 2.1
million
m3 in 1993, mostly from Malaysia and PNG.
Korea's imports were down
one-third
from 1992 levels, with a further decrease to 1.9 million m3 in 1994-
95. Korea, like Japan and some other Asian
consumers, is undertaking to shift
processing
capacity to producing countries, close to resources and cheaper
labour. Korea is also importing increased quantity
of logs from Africa
(primarily
Ghana), with 1994 levels reaching 205,000 m3 compared to 21,000 m3 in
1992.
European
countries imported over 2.4 million m3 of tropical logs in 1993, most
of
which came from African producers.
France remains the largest of the
European
log importers, with imports of around 900,000 m3 per year over the past
five
years. France's tropical log supplies
come mainly from Gabon, Cameroon and
Congo. Italy, Portugal and Spain are also major
European log importers, with
over
250,000 m3 of log imports each in 1993.
Several
ITTO producing countries have become net importers of logs, indicating
the
extent of wood shortages in their domestic forest sectors. Thailand and the
Philippines
were the major ITTO producer country importers of tropical logs,
reflecting
resource scarcity and logging bans in these countries. Peninsular
Malaysia
has also recently become a significant tropical log importer, with
imports
doubling from 174,000 m3 in 1993 to 350,000 in 1995.
_Prices_
Real
export prices of most species in Asian/Pacific logs increased sharply in
1993
and early 1994, due to the perception of log shortages in Asia. Real
prices
more than tripled in dollar terms in some cases, causing substantial
confusion
in major markets. Prices underwent a
generally steady decline
throughout
the last three quarters of 1994 as the Sabah export ban was relaxed
and
importers adjusted to the new supply situation. However, real Asian/Pacific
log
export prices in mid-1995 remained higher than before the 1993 price
increase. Prior to 1993 most prices had been
relatively stable for at least two
years.
Real
export prices for most important species of African log exports were
relatively
stable or declining during the 1993-95 period, although real prices
of
several species rose temporarily in mid late 1994. This was primarily due to
increased
demand from Asian markets for these species.
_________
Figure
3 (table constructed from interpretation of original bar graph, to
nearest
100,000 m3):
Major
Tropical Log Importers
Volume
(1000 m3)
1993 1994 1995
Japan 8300 7600 6500
Taiwan 2200 2000 2000
Rep. of
Korea 2100 1900 1800
Thailand 1600 1500 1500
China 1600 2000 2000
Others 3500 3500 3300
__________
_________
Figure
4 (table constructed from interpretation of original bar graph, to
nearest
500,000 m3):
Major
Tropical Log Consumers
Volume
(1000 m3)
1993 1994 1995
Indonesia 37000 35000 34000
Malaysia 28000 27500 27500
Brazil 22500 24000 25000
India 16000 15000 15000
Japan 10000 9000 8000
Others 26500 28000 26500
__________
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