06/26/01 -- Amazon Forest Could Vanish Fast

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FOREST CONSERVATION NEWS TODAY

Amazon Forest Could Vanish Fast

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06/26/01

OVERVIEW & COMMENTARY by Forests.org

Yet another scientific study calls into question the medium term

sustainability of the Amazon rainforest. A new model predicts that

current deforestation rates of about one percent per year in the

rainforests of the Amazon River basin in Brazil could within a decade

push the rainforests past the point where they can sustain

themselves. The new model incorporates feedback mechanisms. The

model's innovation lies in identifying problematic interactions

between direct threats such as logging and mining, climate feedback

that could bring far less rain to the remaining fragmented forests,

and loss of essential species that help sustain the rainforest

ecosystem. Indeed, feedbacks between deforestation and reduced

precipitation are already evident, as Brazilian drought conditions

have reduced hydropower capacity and lead to a major energy crisis.

The research shows that if there is no immediate and aggressive

action to change current agricultural, mining and logging practices,

the Amazon rainforest could pass "the point of no return" in 10 to 15

years; and could essentially disappear within 40 to 50 years. Along

with the more rigorous and conservative findings of the recent study

in Science (see Forests.org at http://forests.org/ to access), there

is strong scientific evidence emerging that the Amazon is threatened

as never before.

Shortly Forests.org will be launching a campaign to press for the

Brazilian government to discontinue planned massive infrastructure

developments in the Amazon, and to recommitment itself to sustainable

development. The time is now to take a stand (final?) for the

World's rainforests. The demise and complete destruction of the

Amazon rainforest is reaching the point of being irreversible. The

future of the Amazon rainforest and millions of species that depend

upon it for their survival - including quite possibly Homo sapiens -

is being determined right now.

g.b.

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ITEM #1

Title: Amazon Rainforest Could be Unsustainable Within a Decade

Date: June 26, 2001

Byline: By Cat Lazaroff

EDINBURGH, Scotland, June 26, 2001 (ENS) - Within a decade, there

could be no more tropical rainforests to save, warns a Penn State-

Abington researcher. The problem lies in the interactions between

direct threats such as logging and mining, climate feedback that

could bring far less rain to the remaining fragmented forests, and

loss of essential species that help sustain the rainforest ecosystem.

Using the two million square mile Amazon River Basin as an example,

Professor James (Bud) Alcock said his research shows that if there is

no immediate and aggressive action to change current agricultural,

mining and logging practices, the rainforest could pass "the point of

no return" in 10 to 15 years.

Working from his office on campus, Alcock, professor of environmental

sciences, has developed a mathematical model to study the effect of

human driven deforestation. Current deforestation rates of about one

percent per year in the

Amazon River Basin rainforest in Brazil could push the rainforests

past the point where they can sustain themselves within a decade,

Alcock argues.

The other key tropical rainforests are in the Congo River Basin in

Africa and Southeast Asia.

Rainforests are dependent on high levels of precipitation brought on

by daily rain, and a healthy forest holds onto the rain and returns

it to the atmosphere so it can be recycled - a process called

evapotranspiration. Without a healthy base of vegetation, water

runoff occurs at a higher rate, and it creates the potential for a

highly unstable rainforest system.

While others have studied the effect of tropical rainforest

deforestation on regional and global climates, Alcock said his study

differs because it focuses on the local impact of the issues. In the

Amazon River Basin, for example, loss of the forest would likely

cause the extinction of many species of animals that thrive in such

an environment, he said.

These species not only depend on the rainforest, Alcock said - the

rainforest also depends on its wildlife. For example, insects are

needed to pollinate flowers and recycle fallen foliage, while many

birds and small mammals are required to spread the seeds of

vegetation to help new trees and bushes to grow in clearcut areas.

"There are already a large number of species that are endangered,

because the forest itself is endangered," said Alcock. "We might be

able to keep a few animals at the zoos, but we'd surely lose a lot of

amphibians, reptiles and insects. We couldn't take them all."

Alcock's model indicates that the rainforest could essentially

disappear within 40 to 50 years. That is a far cry from the common

belief among researchers that the forest is still 75 to 100 years

away from total deterioration, if current patterns prevail, said

Alcock.

"Because of the way tropical rainforests work, they are dependent on

trees to return water to the air," said Alcock, noting that the sheer

size of the Amazon River Basin has already been reduced by about 25

percent.

"This interdependence of climate and forest means risks to the

forests are much closer at hand than what we might expect, and we're

doing very little because of the priorities of Brazil and The Congo,"

Alcock noted. "It's a very difficult problem because of several

pressures. For example, you cannot say, 'leave the rainforests alone'

when people are living in poverty."

There are those who espouse preserving small portions of the

rainforest, but Alcock said damage to the overall system would

probably limit the rain necessary to do that. Less rain could also

mean more forest fires, further threatening the balance of the

rainforest.

Alcock presented his findings on Monday at a joint conference of the

Geology Society of America and the Geology Society of London titled,

"Earth System Processes," in Edinburgh, Scotland.

Alcock said he decided to do the research so he could better explain

the concept of feedback - exemplified by precipitation and

evapotranspiration in the rainforest - to students in one of his

introductory courses on earth systems. He hopes to advance his future

studies by visiting the Amazon River Basin, or collaborating with

someone who has done field research there.

ITEM #2

Title: Amazon forest 'could vanish fast'

Date: June 25, 2001

Byline: BBC News Online's environment correspondent Alex Kirby

The destruction of the Amazon rainforest could be irreversible within

a decade, according to a US scientist.

James Alcock, of Pennsylvania State University, says the forest could

virtually disappear within half a century.

His estimate of the possible rate of destruction is faster than most

others and Mr Alcock, professor of environmental sciences at Penn

State's Abington

College, says the danger lies in a complex feedback process.

Research published in the journal Science earlier this year

suggesting that deforestation rates in the Amazon could reach 42% by

2020 were based on unreliable facts and "ecological futurology",

Brazil's science and technology ministry said.

Point of no return

But Professor Alcock's forecast, based on a mathematical model of

human-driven deforestation, is starker still.

Without immediate and forceful action to change current agricultural,

mining and logging practices, he says, the forest could pass the

point of no return in 10 to 15 years.

And the model indicates that the forest, far from having 75 or 100

years to reach total collapse as other researchers predict, could

essentially disappear within 40 or 50 years.

Professor Alcock is presenting his findings at a conference in

Scotland being held jointly by the Geology Societies of America and

London.

He hopes to develop his research with fieldwork in the Amazon,

although he argues that his model is also a useful predictor of what

could happen in the other great tropical forest systems, in south

east Asia and the Congo river basin in Africa.

Professor Alcock, who says the size of the Amazon river basin has

already been reduced by about 25%, believes the threat lies in a

process known as evapotranspiration, in which the rain that falls on

a forest is retained and then returned to the atmosphere.

But without a healthy vegetation base, he says, there is little to

stop the water running off, and this creates the potential for a

highly unstable forest system.

Risks are close

"Because of the way tropical rainforests work, they are dependent on

trees to return water to the air", he said.

"This interdependence of climate and forest means risks to the

forests are much closer at hand than we might expect.

"It's a very difficult problem because of several pressures. For

example, you can't say: 'Leave the rainforests alone' when people are

living in poverty."

Professor Alcock says plans to preserve small areas of forest would

probably not work, because damage to the overall system would limit

the rain necessary for their survival.

Less rain falling on the forest could also increase the likelihood of

fires.

Another consequence he foresees is the extinction of many creatures

that depend on the forest for survival.

Professor Alcock said: "There are already a large number of species

that are endangered, because the forest itself is endangered.

Estimates 'exaggerated'

"We might be able to keep a few animals at the zoos, but we'd surely

lose a lot of amphibians, reptiles and insects."

However, Philip Stott, professor of biogeography at the University of

London, UK, told BBC News Online: "This model sounds to me to be

highly simplistic in political, economic and ecological terms.

"Many scientists believe that deforestation estimates are greatly

exaggerated, and that in the Amazon 87% may still be intact - perhaps

more.

"There's always a lot of secondary regeneration, and you'd have to

take that into account in any modelling."

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