07/07/02 -- The Earth is Dying from Ecological Overshoot

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FOREST CONSERVATION NEWS TODAY

The Earth is Dying from Ecological Overshoot - Earth Revolution Needed

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Forest Networking a Project of Forests.org, Inc.

http://forests.org/ -- Forest Conservation Portal

http://www.EnvironmentalSustainability.info/ -- Eco-Portal

July 7, 2002

OVERVIEW & COMMENTARY by Forests.org

The Earth is dying. Globally air, water, land and ocean ecosystems are

collapsing. Global inequities in human wealth, health and justice

continue to soar. A soon to be released WWF report indicates that "a

third of the natural world has been destroyed by humans over the past

three decades." Several recent scientific studies indicate that rates of

human consumption have surpassed the rates whereby the Earth can replenish

itself - a condition termed "ecological overshoot".

There is no escaping the fundamentally biological nature of being. Humans

and all life need ecosystems to exist - to provide for our air, water,

shelter and sustenance. The human family also desires to better its

condition; to have access to comfort, security and material wealth. To

date, despite the rhetoric of “Sustainable Development”, these two

realities remain irreconcilable. As a result, it is clear that the Earth

is in its final death swoon. The only question is what is to be done?

Governments and corporations, increasingly one, refuse to lead; and show

little inclination to reform economic, political and social systems that

are inherently ecologically unsustainable and socially inequitable. Below

are only a sampling of recent news and scientific studies accessible at

http://www.EnvironmentalSustainability.info/ that attest to these facts.

I desperately hope that the World's leaders will have the vision and will

to address looming ecological Armageddon at the coming Johannesburg Earth

Summit. To start, the World must agree to immediately 1) put all

available resources into developing renewable energy while beginning to

limit and then dismantle the carbon economy, 2) strictly preserve all

remaining large, intact terrestrial ecosystems and allow them to expand

through targeted restoration, 3) ensure the price of all consumption

reflects its true environmental costs, 4) downsize global fishery and

forestry industries to allow stocks to recover, 5) forgive the debt of all

developing countries in exchange for using these resources for sustainable

development and ecological conservation (particularly of water resources),

6) provide substantial incentives for individuals to reduce family size

and make sustainable purchasing decisions. These actions must happen now,

yet will only be the beginning. It is clear that humanity has no idea

of what will be required to live within our means. But we must try.

It appears all too likely that the drastic and urgent policy actions

necessary to save the Earth and human existence are unlikely to occur soon

enough. If governments will not lead, people will have to. There must

and will be an Earth Revolution. If you will not change your ways and

battle to save mother Earth, what is worth fighting for? Now is the time

for you and I to act on behalf of the Earth.

g.b.

For more information see:

"Eco-Portal - The Environmental Sustainability.Info Source" at

http://www.EnvironmentalSustainability.Info/ , the United Nation's GEO3

report at http://grid2.cr.usgs.gov/geo/geo3/ , Redefining Progress at

http://www.redefiningprogress.org/ and WWF at http://www.panda.org/ (set

to release new report this Tuesday).

ITEM #1

Title: Earth 'will expire by 2050'

Date: Juy 7, 2002

By: Mark Townsend and Jason Burke

Our planet is running out of room and resources. Modern man has plundered

so much, a damning report claims this week, that outer space will have to

be colonised

Earth's population will be forced to colonise two planets within 50 years

if natural resources continue to be exploited at the current rate,

according to a report out this week.

A study by the World Wildlife Fund (WWF), to be released on Tuesday, warns

that the human race is plundering the planet at a pace that outstrips its

capacity to support life.

In a damning condemnation of Western society's high consumption levels, it

adds that the extra planets (the equivalent size of Earth) will be

required by the year 2050 as existing resources are exhausted.

The report, based on scientific data from across the world, reveals that

more than a third of the natural world has been destroyed by humans over

the past three decades.

Using the image of the need for mankind to colonise space as a stark

illustration of the problems facing Earth, the report warns that either

consumption rates are dramatically and rapidly lowered or the planet will

no longer be able to sustain its growing population.

Experts say that seas will become emptied of fish while forests - which

absorb carbon dioxide emissions - are completely destroyed and freshwater

supplies become scarce and polluted.

The report offers a vivid warning that either people curb their

extravagant lifestyles or risk leaving the onus on scientists to locate

another planet that can sustain human life. Since this is unlikely to

happen, the only option is to cut consumption now.

Systematic overexploitation of the planet's oceans has meant the North

Atlantic's cod stocks have collapsed from an estimated spawning stock of

264,000 tonnes in 1970 to under 60,000 in 1995.

The study will also reveal a sharp fall in the planet's ecosystems between

1970 and 2002 with the Earth's forest cover shrinking by about 12 per

cent, the ocean's biodiversity by a third and freshwater ecosystems in the

region of 55 per cent.

The Living Planet report uses an index to illustrate the shocking level of

deterioration in the world's forests as well as marine and freshwater

ecosystems. Using 1970 as a baseline year and giving it a value of 100,

the index has dropped to a new low of around 65 in the space of a single

generation.

It is not just humans who are at risk. Scientists, who examined data for

350 kinds of mammals, birds, reptiles and fish, also found the numbers of

many species have more than halved.

Martin Jenkins, senior adviser for the World Conservation Monitoring

Centre in Cambridge, which helped compile the report, said: 'It seems

things are getting worse faster than possibly ever before. Never has one

single species had such an overwhelming influence. We are entering

uncharted territory.'

Figures from the centre reveal that black rhino numbers have fallen from

65,000 in 1970 to around 3,100 now. Numbers of African elephants have

fallen from around 1.2 million in 1980 to just over half a million while

the population of tigers has fallen by 95 per cent during the past

century.

The UK's birdsong population has also seen a drastic fall with the corn

bunting population declining by 92 per cent between 1970 and 2000, the

tree sparrow by 90 per cent and the spotted flycatcher by 70 per cent.

Experts, however, say it is difficult to ascertain how many species have

vanished for ever because a species has to disappear for 50 years before

it can be declared extinct.

Attention is now focused on next month's Earth Summit in Johannesburg, the

most important environmental negotiations for a decade.

However, the talks remain bedevilled with claims that no agreements will

be reached and that US President George W. Bush will fail to attend.

Matthew Spencer, a spokesman for Greenpeace, said: 'There will have to be

concessions from the richer nations to the poorer ones or there will be

fireworks.'

The preparatory conference for the summit, held in Bali last month, was

marred by disputes between developed nations and poorer states and non-

governmental organisations (NGOs), despite efforts by British politicians

to broker compromises on key issues.

America, which sent 300 delegates to the conference, is accused of

blocking many of the key initiatives on energy use, biodiversity and

corporate responsibility.

The WWF report shames the US for placing the greatest pressure on the

environment. It found the average US resident consumes almost double the

resources as that of a UK citizen and more than 24 times that of some

Africans.

Based on factors such as a nation's consumption of grain, fish, wood and

fresh water along with its emissions of carbon dioxide from industry and

cars, the report provides an ecological 'footprint' for each country by

showing how much land is required to support each resident.

America's consumption 'footprint' is 12.2 hectares per head of population

compared to the UK's 6.29ha while Western Europe as a whole stands at

6.28ha. In Ethiopia the figure is 2ha, falling to just half a hectare for

Burundi, the country that consumes least resources.

The report, which will be unveiled in Geneva, warns that the wasteful

lifestyles of the rich nations are mainly responsible for the exploitation

and depletion of natural wealth. Human consumption has doubled over the

last 30 years and continues to accelerate by 1.5 per cent a year.

Now WWF wants world leaders to use its findings to agree on specific

actions to curb the population's impact on the planet.

A spokesman for WWF UK, said: 'If all the people consumed natural

resources at the same rate as the average US and UK citizen we would

require at least two extra planets like Earth.'

The world's ticking timebomb

Marine crisis:

North Atlantic cod stocks have collapsed from an estimated 264,000 tonnes

in 1970 to under 60,000 in 1995.

Pollution:

The United States places the greatest pressure on the environment, with

its carbon dioxide emissions and over-consumption. It takes 12.2 hectares

of land to support each American citizen and 6.29 for each Briton, while

the figure for Burundi is just half a hectare.

Shrinking Forests:

Between 1970 and 2002 forest cover has dwindled by 12 per cent.

Endangered wildlife:

African elephant numbers have fallen from 1.2 million in 1980 to half a

million now. In the UK the songbird population has fallen dramatically,

with the corn bunting declining by 92 per cent in the past 30 years.

ITEM #2

Title: Earth can't meet human demand for resources, says study

Date: June 25, 2002

By: Christopher Doering, Reuters

WASHINGTON - The consumption of forests, energy, and land by humans is

exceeding the rate at which Earth can replenish itself, according to

research published Monday in the Proceedings of the National Academy of

Sciences.

The study, conducted by California-based Redefining Progress, a nonprofit

group concerned with environmental conservation and its economics, warned

that a failure to rein in humanity's overuse of natural resources could

send the planet into "ecological bankruptcy."

Earth's resources "are like a pile of money anyone can grab while they all

close their eyes, but then it's gone," said Mathis Wackernagel, lead

author of the study and a program director at Redefining Progress.

Scientists said humanity's demand for resources had soared during the past

40 years to a level where it would take the planet 1.2 years to regenerate

what people remove each year. The impact by humans on the environment had

inched higher since 1961 when public demand was 70 percent of the planet's

regenerative capacity, the study showed. "If we don't live within the

budget of nature, sustainability becomes futile," Wackernagel said.

The study, which details the population's impact on the Earth with a

quantitative number, measured the "ecological footprint" of human

activities such as marine fishing, harvesting timber, building

infrastructure, and burning fossil fuel that emits carbon dioxide (CO2)

into the atmosphere. Researchers then used government data and various

estimates to determine how much land would be required to meet human

demand for those actions.

For example, Wackernagel and his team found that in 1999, each person

consumed an average of 5.7 acres. The global average was significantly

lower than industrialized countries such as the United States and the

United Kingdom, where 24 acres and 13.3 acres, respectively, were consumed

per person.

'ECOLOGICAL BANKRUPTCY'

In order to develop a formula that measured humanity's consumption with

the Earth's regenerative capacity, the researchers were forced to reach

several assumptions and omit the use of some resources because of

insufficient data. The results, for example, excluded the impact of local

freshwater use and the release of solid, liquid, or gaseous pollutants

other than CO2 into the environment.

Even though the findings revealed that human use of resources was far

outstripping Earth's supply, it stopped short of determining how long the

process could continue without detrimental consequences.

"Like any responsible business that keeps track of spending and income to

protect financial assets, we need ecological accounts to protect our

natural assets," Wackernagel said. "And if we don't ... we will prepare

for ecological bankruptcy."

Wackernagel said the study's results could be used to gauge the impact of

new technologies and how they affect the environment. The use of an

alternative technology, such as one that produces renewable energy or

replaces natural biological processes, could allow society to live better

without increasing consumption, he said.

Governments could also determine the impact consumers and businesses were

having on depleting area resources and evaluate potential ways to reduce

consumption, Wackernagel said.

ITEM #3

Title: Humanity is taking more than Earth can give

Researchers calculate the planet is ecologically overburdened by 20

Percent

Date: June 25, 2002

By: Carl T. Hall, Chronicle Science Writer

Nobody doubts that people put a heavy burden on the biosphere. Now, a

global team of ecology experts, working under the sponsorship of famed

Harvard biologist Edward O. Wilson, has tried to weigh just how heavy the

load might be.

The bottom line is a single, sobering number: 120 percent.

Adding up all the farming, fishing, mining, building and fuel consumption,

researchers calculated our global ecological demand to be the equivalent

of 120 percent of the Earth's capacity to sustain these activities.

Operating 20 percent beyond the break-even point means that "it would

require 1.2 Earths, or one Earth for 1.2 years, to regenerate what

humanity used in 1999," the researchers conclude in a study appearing

today in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. The analysis

is based on 1999 statistics, the most recent available, and generally

accepted estimates of the planet's biological productivity.

Our "ecological overshoot" started in the late 1970s and continues to

widen, the researchers added. During an interview Monday, Wilson said the

new study offered one of the first impartial methods of keeping tabs on

the biosphere.

"This is a very effective measure for telling the world where we are and

what the trajectory might be," Wilson said. "We've never really had

anything like this before -- a measure we can intuitively understand and

that's based on solid data."

The study is also one of the latest attempts by ecology specialists to use

some of the standard tools of economics, transforming fisheries, forests

and other key elements of the biosphere into so much "natural capital."

The idea is to monitor the ebbs and flows of this form of capital with

much the same kind of numerical rigor that economists use in tracking

labor, investment and industrial output.

"We need accounts for our use of nature, the same as we use accounts in

business," said Mathis Wackernagel, program director at the Oakland-based

group Redefining Progress and lead author of the new study.

Co-authors include Norman Myers of Oxford University, Jorgen Randers at

the Norwegian School of Management and Richard Norgaard at UC Berkeley.

The authors shied away from any specific policy choices that might reduce

the shadow cast by humanity's huge "ecological footprint." But they made

it clear that in their view current consumption patterns could not be

sustained.

Worldwide, the average amount of productive land needed to satisfy the

needs and wants of each man, woman and child is about 2.3 "global

hectares" -- the standardized measure of productive acreage used by the

study authors. By comparison, the productive capacity of the Earth is

estimated at 1.9 hectares per capita.

The imbalance is much more pronounced, of course, in the richest

countries: The United States, for instance, consumed about 9.7 global

hectares per person for 1999, while the United Kingdom commanded 5.4, and

Germany took 4.7.

"We are overspending," Wackernagel said, calling the trend a prescription

for "ecological bankruptcy" that is starting to show up already in

collapsing commercial fisheries, loss of productive cropland and demise of

natural forests.

But conservative critics said the study amounted to little more than fancy

guesswork, saying there were no data to justify the implication that human

activity was running roughshod over the planet's health.

"I think this is another one of these scare tactics" from

environmentalists,

said Thomas Gale Moore of the Hoover Institution in Palo Alto. "They come

to the conclusion that mankind is already using 120 percent of the Earth's

capacity. But if that were true, I would think we'd be seeing a general

degradation of the world, when in fact the environment, certainly in the

advanced countries of the world, is getting cleaner and better, not

dirtier."

The new study drew mostly from national production and land-use statistics

already being prepared by governments around the world. In the new

framework, these statistics become fodder for a kind of "ecological GDP" -

- a single number to sum up all the best available "biophysical

indicators" to track resources and the sustainability of the human

economy.

"The purpose of these global accounts is not merely to illustrate a method

for measuring human demand on bioproductivity, but to offer a tool for

measuring the potential effect of remedial policies," the authors

conclude.

Just what form those policies might take is a matter the researchers are

leaving to policymakers to decide. They said any such decisions were being

made in a vacuum without some fair way to keep score.

"Assessments like the one presented here allow humanity, using existing

data, to monitor its performance regarding a necessary ecological

condition for sustainability: the need to keep human demand within the

amount that nature can supply," the study stated.

ITEM #4

Title: Planet's future at stake, U.N. report says

'It would be a disaster to sit back and ignore the picture that is

painted.' Klaus Toepfer U.N. Environment Program

Date: May 23, 2002

By: Olivia Ward

In 30 years, the Earth could look like a desert-strewn wasteland of urban

slums, lose almost a quarter of its mammal species and leave people

inhabiting large regions perishing from thirst and water-borne disease.

Or, it could be stabilizing global warming, repairing damage to water

resources and mitigating the worst effects of environmentally induced

poverty.

According to a massive United Nations environmental study released

yesterday, the planet is poised on a precipice, and time is running out

for making tough political and economic choices that can pull it back from

disaster.

"The choices made today are critical for the forests, oceans, rivers,

mountains, and other life-support systems upon which current and future

generations depend," said Klaus Toepfer, executive director of the U.N.

Environment Program (UNEP), based in Nairobi, Kenya. "Fundamental changes

are possible and required," he added. "It would be a disaster to sit back

and ignore the picture that is painted."

Released in advance of the U.N. World Summit on Sustainable Development -

to be held Aug. 26-Sept. 4 in Johannesburg, South Africa - the 450-page

report is based on contributions from more than 1,000 scientists

collaborating with UNEP.

But rather than publishing a laundry list of dire predictions it follows

logical sequences of events, showing the environmental consequence of

decisions that focus on unchecked economic growth, national security or

sustainable development.

Most damning is the "market first" scenario - one that strongly resembles

the philosophy of the current administration in Washington.

With emphasis on untrammelled economic growth, the report said, 3 per cent

of the Earth's surface will have been absorbed into cities within 30

years, with a disastrous effect on wildlife and biodiversity.

At the same time, 55 per cent of the global population will face moderate

to severe water shortages, with 95 per cent of those in West Asia in

crisis.

More than 11,000 plant and animal species will be dead or dying, including

1,000 mammal species that make up nearly a quarter of the world's total

mammal species. Among the most threatened are the black rhinoceros of

Africa, the Siberian tiger and the Amur leopard of Asia, according to the

U.N.'s World Conservation Monitoring Centre.

Most coastal regions will be clogged with pollution through urban growth,

intensive farming and tourism overload. In addition, almost one-third of

the world's fish stocks are depleted, overexploited or recovering as a

result of overfishing.

Michael Novacek, provost of science at the American Museum of Natural

History, said the U.N. figures are in line with projections based on land

loss and degradation of oceans "that as much as 30 per cent of species

diversity will be erased by the middle of this century."

"We have a taste of this in marine ecosystems," he said, citing devastated

coral reefs in the Caribbean, loss of fisheries in the Mediterranean and

the "hugely threatened" South China Sea, which feeds so many people.

Emissions of carbon dioxide, the gas held responsible for global warming,

will rise to 16 billion tonnes a year, doubling air pollution worldwide

from levels before the industrial age of the 19th century, and

accelerating global warming.

"This is an eye-opener," said Toepfer, a former environment minister in

the German government. "The figures are not a nightmare prognosis for the

future ... decisive action can achieve positive results."

At Johannesburg, he added, "we need a concrete action plan ... concrete

projects ... and above all a clear declaration."

Some environmental progress has been made since the landmark 1972

Stockholm environmental conference when UNEP was established, the report

said. The quality of air and river waters has improved in Europe and North

America, and checks on chemical emissions have made it possible for

recovery of ozone layer damage, which has been growing to alarming

proportions. Forest management schemes, such as those of Canada, Finland,

Norway and the United States, are ensuring that the impact of over-

harvesting of timber will be reduced in those countries.

The number of hungry people in the world is also predicted to fall, in

spite of the disappearance of farmland and pollution from agricultural

chemicals.

But much of the progress is in wealthy industrialized countries, and the

report found evidence of a widening gap between rich and poor.

"The poor, the sick and the disadvantaged, both within societies and in

different countries and regions, are particularly vulnerable," it said.

"Everyone is vulnerable to some extent to environmental threat, but there

is evidence that the gap between those able and unable to cope with rising

levels of environmental change is widening."

In some of its more dramatic findings, the report revealed that the number

of people affected by disasters has climbed from an average of 147 million

a year in the 1980s, to more than 211 million a year in the 1990s. At the

turn of the century, financial losses from natural disasters were

estimated at more than $100 billion (U.S.)

Environmentally based health disasters are also startling, including those

from contaminated water supplies, the report said. "There are about 4

billion cases of diarrhea and 2.2 million deaths a year, equivalent to 20

jumbo jets crashing every day."

At Johannesburg, the U.N. will make a last-ditch attempt to change course

from disaster, by persuading often resistant leaders to act in the best

interest of the planet. So far, much smaller changes have met strong

opposition.

ITEM #5

Title: UNEP 30 Year Outlook: Development Conquers Earth

Date: May 22, 2002

LONDON, United Kingdom, May 22, 2002 (ENS) - Over 70 percent of the

Earth's land surface could be impacted by roads, mining, cities and other

infrastructure developments in the next 30 years unless urgent action is

taken, the United Nations warns in a long term global outlook report

issued today.

The planet is at a crucial crossroads with the choices made today critical

for the forests, oceans, rivers, mountains, wildlife and other life

support systems upon which current and future generations depend, the

United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) says in its Global Environment

Outlook-3 (GEO-3) report. Over 1,000 people, many from a global network of

collaborating centers, contributed to GEO-3 which reviews the past 30

years and offers forecasts for the next 30 years.

UNEP Executive Director Klaus Toepfer, introducing the report today in

London, said human beings know enough right now to make the choices that

can produce a healthy and prosperous planet. What is needed is the courage

and the will to act.

"We now have hundreds of declarations, agreements, guidelines and legally

binding treaties designed to address environmental problems and the

threats they pose to wildlife and human health and well being," Toepfer

said.

"We can never know for certain what lies before us, the future is another

country," he said. "But we know enough now to see how our actions or lack

of actions might shape the environment and the inhabitants of this

extraordinary blue planet by 2032."

The GEO-3 outlook warns that Latin America and the Caribbean region are

likely to be hardest hit with more than 80 percent of the land affected by

development.

In Asia and the Pacific region over 75 percent of the land may be affected

by habitat disturbance and other kinds of environmental damage as a result

of rapid and poorly planned infrastructure growth.

Toepfer urged, "Let us now find the political courage and the innovative

financing needed to implement these deals and steer a healthier, more

prosperous, course for planet Earth. We need concrete actions, we need

concrete timetables and we need an iron will from all sides. It cannot be

the responsibility of politicians alone," he said. "We are all

shareholders in this enterprise."

Friends of the Earth today welcomed the publication of what it called a

"hard-hitting" United Nations report.

Tony Juniper, director designate of Friends of the Earth, the world's

largest grassroots environmental network, said in London, "This report

provides yet another wake up call to the world. We face massive problems

which require international action if we are to prevent global tragedy.

Time really is running out. The Johannesburg Earth Summit is crucial. It

is vital that the world's most powerful nations show leadership and put

people and the planet ahead of national and corporate interests."

Juniper urged world leaders to agree on "global rights for people and

global rules for big business" at the Earth Summit which opens August 26

in Johannesburg. He had a warning for the United States - which under

President George W. Bush has backed away from international agreements

such as the Kyoto Protocol - other nations will pass the U.S. by on their

way to planetary health.

"If rogue nations like the U.S. are unwilling to participate in

international coalitions such as the Kyoto climate change treaty, then new

coalitions must be formed to put long term well being before the short

term profitability of large companies," Juniper said. "Countries attending

the Earth Summit must not be dragged down by the standards of the most

short sighted."

GEO-3 had a hopeful outlook on global warming. Concerted action involving

governments, industry and individual citizens could deliver deep cuts in

emissions of the gases linked with global warming, the report says. With

sufficient public and private will, levels of carbon dioxide could begin

stabilizing in the atmosphere by 2032.

Clean drinking water is going to be in short supply, the UNEP report

warns. More than half the people in the world could be living in severely

water stressed areas by 2032 if market forces drive the globe's political,

economic and social agenda, GEO-3 predicts.

West Asia, which includes areas such as the Arabian Peninsula, is likely

to be thirsty with over 90 percent of the population expected to be living

in areas with "severe water stress" by 2032.

On the positive side, the proportion of hungry people in the world appears

set to fall. Under one future scenario, hunger declines to as little as

2.5 percent of the global population by 2032 - in line with the United

Nations Millennium Declaration goals.

In its Outlook chapter, GEO-3 outlines four policy approaches leading to

different outcomes over the next 30 years.

Two of the most contrasting scenarios are termed Markets First and

Sustainability First. One envisions a future driven by market forces; the

other by far reaching changes in values and lifestyles, firm policies and

cooperation between all sectors of society.

Focusing on fresh water, the difference between the two scenarios is

striking. Under the Markets First scenario, the number of people living in

areas with severe water stress, both in absolute and relative terms,

increases in virtually all parts of the globe. An estimated 55 percent of

the global population is affected, up from over 40 percent in 2002. The

highest proportions of people living with severe water stress are in West

Asia, with over 95 percent, and Asia and the Pacific, with over 65

percent.

Under a Sustainability First future, most regions see the area under water

stress remaining more or less constant or even falling as more efficient

management of water reduces water withdrawals, especially for irrigation.

In West Asia, the number living in areas of severe water stress is kept at

around 90 percent of the population. In the United States, the number of

thirsty people halves to around a fifth of the population and in Europe,

it drops from around a third now to just over 10 percent by 2032.

Toepfer is looking towards the Johannesburg World Summit on Sustainable

Development as the forum where heads of government and heads of state can

choose to take concrete action that will turn the planet from the path of

environmental destruction.

"Ten years ago, governments met in Rio for the Earth Summit. In just three

months, we have the World Summit on Sustainable Development (WSSD) in

South Africa," he said today. "This is a summit for sustainable

development, but it is also a summit for the environment. Environment for

Development is UNEP's motto, for without the environment there can never

be the kind of development needed to secure a fair deal for this or future

generations."

ITEM #6

Title: World at Environmental Crossroads, Says U.N. Report

Date: May 22, 2002

LONDON (Reuters) - The world is facing a critical choice between greed and

humanity which will decide the fate of millions of people for decades to

come, the United Nations (news - web sites) Environment Program said on

Wednesday.

"The planet is at a crucial crossroads with the choices made today

critical for the forests, oceans, rivers, mountains, wildlife and other

life support systems upon which current and future generations depend,"

the UNEP's third global report said.

Already one quarter of the world's mammals and 12 percent of birds are

under threat of extinction. The animals at risk range from rhinos to

tigers and eagles, it added.

Life-giving forests are being ripped apart, fertile land is disappearing

under concrete or into the sea and waterways are drying up or dying of

pollution.

Dire poverty, hunger and sickness are rampant across the planet and the

globalization of trade is carrying with it oil spills, litter, persistent

organic pollutants and discharges of heavy metals.

The world's seas, already under attack from pollution, are also being

plundered by man to the extent that nearly one-third of the world's stock

of fish is now ranked as depleted, overexploited or recovering, the report

said.

But the third Global Environmental Outlook (GEO-3) report stressed that

all was not lost.

The world's leaders, gearing up for the World Summit on Sustainable

Development -- dubbed the second world earth summit -- in Johannesburg in

August had to take the initiative and give substance to the plethora of

existing accords.

"We now have hundreds of declarations, agreements, guidelines and legally-

binding treaties. Let us now find the political courage and the innovative

financing needed to implement these deals," UNEP Executive Director Klaus

Toepfer said.

Toepfer called on the leaders attending the earth summit to take concrete

actions and set timetables backed with an iron will on all sides.

The report painted four possible scenarios ranging from the "markets

first" future to the sustainability approach.

Under the first scenario, three percent of the earth's surface disappears

under concrete by 2032, more than half the population is living with

drought, 70 percent of the remaining land and animals are under threat and

16 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide is being belched into the air each

year from fossil fuels.

Under the second scenario, cities and highways eat up less land, drought

is kept at bay by better water management, the pressure on land and

animals stabilizes and global carbon dioxide emissions rise to just half

the greed policy route.

"GEO-3 is neither a document of doom and gloom nor a gloss over the acute

challenges facing us all," Toepfer said. "It is the most authoritative

assessment of where we have been, where we have reached and where we are

likely to go."

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